Calgary has a buzz on. Life in Alberta's biggest city is good, the economy is thriving, work is abundant, wages are high, taxes are low, homes are affordable, lifestyles are diverse, and the natural scenery rivals anywhere in the world. And, it's been a record year for Calgary real estate, with residential sales 12% above the 10-year average.
Still, as we prepare to ring in a new year, it's all about the supply chain in local real estate – an inventory level that is now at its lowest since 2005, largely impacted by the withdrawal in sales and new listings. Lower-priced properties felt the stiffest conditions as higher-priced homes drove supply growth this year.
The Pain Point
Inventory levels will likely stay low in Q1 of 2023 but should get a streaming increase through Q3. Low housing inventory plays a central role in buying or selling a home, especially regarding Calgary condos and townhomes for sale. Fewer consumers are looking for real estate right now, making for a different-paced market in 2023.
As a Calgary real estate advisor for 18 years, I have experienced every kind of market condition, and I am optimistic that Alberta and specifically Stampede Town, will only continue to trend among the top real estate markets in Canada in 2023.
The Best Address in Canada
The Alberta is Calling Campaign is smart and effective. The province is having a banner year in international and interprovincial migration. Net migration was a whopping 3,225% higher in the second quarter of 2022 than it was during the same quarter in 2021. Almost 30% of those migrating to the Energy Province in the second quarter of 2022 came from other Canadian provinces, especially Ontario and B.C. Their destinations-of-choice? Calgary and Edmonton.
Net interprovincial migration was positive for the fourth consecutive quarter.
In 2023, we'll see the love affair continue between out-of-province home buyers and local homeowners ready to sell. First-time buyers and people moving to Calgary will drive demand. Investment opportunities will abound in real estate. We'll also see a consistent flow of Canadian newcomers to Alberta over the next year, contributing to rising demand for housing.
More Home for Your Buck
Calgary led most other major urban centres in home affordability. The overall average residential sale price was boosted to $658,277 in 2022 (January-October), up 13 per cent from $585,025 in 2021 (January-December). As for single-family homes in Calgary, the average price year to date as of the end of November is $656,239. (Source: CREB).
Calgary Home Sellers Are Better Off Than the National Average
From January to October of 2022, the average residential sale price rose by 13% to $658,277 over the same time period in 2021. RE/MAX's Canadian Real Estate Outlook anticipates that Calgary's average residential sale price will be boosted by 7% next year, higher than the modest decline of 3.3% expected in average residential sale prices across the country in 2023. The luxury market is slower now, but it should quicken next year.
A Balanced Market
Calgary became a balanced market in 2022 and should transition into the seller's domain in 2023. We'll see more first-time home buyers adjusting to the market and lowering their expectations. We'll also see the age of first-time home buyers rise as mortgage rates rise. Condos will continue to be dominant choices moving into 2023 for first-time buyers and those looking for investment properties that they can rent out, motivated by relatively inexpensive real estate and the prospect of a mortgage-free semi- or full retirement.